Conservative Momentum Grows as Liberals Struggle to Close the Gap

Alshaar Ansari
Alshaar Ansari News Politics
4 Min Read
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The latest tracking data from Nanos Research shows a narrowing of the gap between the federal Liberals and the Conservative party, with a former 20-percentage point Conservative ballot advantage shrinking to a 12-point lead. 

The Conservatives, under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre, have maintained a safe lead over the Liberals since September, reaching a nearly 20-percentage point gap a month ago, with 42.8 per cent support compared to the Liberals’ 23.8 per cent. However, the latest Nanos ballot tracking shows the Conservatives are now closer to 38 per cent, compared to the Liberals at 26 per cent.

The Decline of NDP Support

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Nik Nanos, founder of Nanos Research, noted that the diminishing Conservative lead has changed as support for the third-place NDP has declined in the last month. 

They’re now at 19 per cent, compared to 21 per cent at the beginning of March. The Conservatives similarly had a large, 18-percentage point lead over the Liberals in mid-November.

The Impact of Quebec on the Political Landscape

At least some of the erosion on the Conservative side when it comes to the ballot may be coming from Quebec, where the numbers get quite interesting. The Bloc Quebecois sits at about 10 per cent nationally, and Nanos said that converts to 39 per cent support in the province, which would be the party’s highest popularity in about four or five years. 

Poilievre Is Angry With Trudeau

While much of the Bloc Quebecois’ gain comes at the Liberals’ expense, some of it is being taken from the Conservatives, said Nanos. He added that the Parti Quebecois is doing well in the provincial polls, which may be having a spillover effect on federal politics, leading Quebecers to become more nationalistic.

Poilievre’s Efforts to Court the Quebec Vote

Despite Poilievre’s efforts to court the Quebec vote, holding the national Conservative policy convention in Quebec City last fall, followed by a tour of Quebec in the New Year, and lately, noticeably beginning his press conferences in French, the Conservatives are still in the low teens in Quebec. However, Nanos said, “we cannot dismiss the fact that the Conservatives are leading nationally very comfortably.”

Leader Popularity

The data for preferred prime minister also shows a narrowing lead for the Conservatives. At the beginning of March, Poilievre was well ahead at 36.9 per cent compared to 19.2 per cent for Trudeau. 

Trudeau vs Poilievre: Who Will Win?

Now, Poilievre is sitting at 33.4 per cent to Trudeau’s 21.5 per cent. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was at 17 per cent a month ago, according to Nanos Research, and is at 14.8 per cent now.

The latest tracking data from Nanos Research suggests that the federal Liberals are narrowing the gap with the Conservative party, with a former 20-percentage point Conservative ballot advantage shrinking to a 12-point lead. 

The decline of NDP support and the impact of Quebec on the political landscape are key factors in this shift. Despite the challenges, the Conservatives remain in a strong position nationally, with Poilievre leading in the preferred prime minister category. 

The next few months will be crucial in determining whether this trend continues or whether the Liberals can regain ground in the lead-up to the next election.

Last Updated on by Alshaar Ansari

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